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AM Comments
By ADM Investor Services Research Team
Wheat prices overnight are unchanged in the SRW Wheat, unchanged in HRW, and up 1 for HRS; Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans down 1; Soymeal up $0.50, and; Soyoil down 15 points.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 10 yuan in Soybeans, up 4 in Corn, up 6 in Soymeal, down 56 in Soyoil, and down 58 in Palm Oil.
The Malaysian Palm Oil market was down 4 ringgit at 2,258 (basis December) at midsession.
The U.S. Midwest weather forecast still looks for average to above average rainfall for the region over the next 10 days—-temps will be running above average across all of the region for the period.
The U.S. 11 to 16 Day Outlook still calls for average to above average precip and above average temps for the Plains and Midwest.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 7,000 Corn; sold 4,000 soybeans; net sold 2,000 Soymeal, and; bought 2,000 lots of Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 11,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 119,000 Corn; net short 79,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 53,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 1,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 2,200 contracts; HRW Wheat up 85; Corn down 3,400; Soybeans up 580 contracts; Soymeal up 1,300 lots, and; Soyoil down 1,900.
There were changes in registrations (Corn down 76)—Registrations total 60 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 1,071; Soybeans 1,144; Soyoil 1,485 lots; Soymeal 810; Rice 1,147; HRW Wheat 11, and; HRS Wheat 741 contracts.
TODAY—–WEEKLY EXPORT SALES—
In tender activity—-Egypt bought 180,000t Russian wheat—Algeria bought 600,000t optional-origin wheat—Turkey bought 250,000t optional-origin wheat—Tunisia seeks 42,000t optional-origin wheat—
Streak of Chinese Soybean Purchases Snaps; three straight days of large US soybean export purchases by Chinese buyers came to an end today–indicating that the Chinese government is more interested in seeing how talks play out before making any more “good will” buys of US soybeans; with the China trade team in Washington, we expect that they want to see how the meetings go before encouraging any additional purchases,” says AgResource–which predicts China might re-enter the US export market for soybeans by next week if talks go well
Trade estimates for USDA weekly grain, soy export sales – Reuters News
| Trade estimates for 2018-19 | Trade estimates for 2019-20 | |
| Wheat | N/A | 300,000-600,000 |
| Corn | N/A | 900,000-1,300,000 |
| Soybeans | N/A | 700,000-1,100,000 |
| Soymeal | 0-200,000 | 50,000-250,000 |
| Soyoil | 0-25,000 | 0-10,000 |
U.S. ethanol production for the week ended September 13th averaged 1.003 mil barrels per day (down 1.96% versus a week ago, down 4.57% versus a year ago); stocks totaled 23.238 mil barrels (up 3.28% versus a week ago, up 2.16% versus last year); corn use for the week was 100.5 mil bu (87.6 mil last week) and versus the 105.1 mil bu needed to meet USDA projections
—Ethanol data released by the EIA shows US inventories building-up in the past week, while production falls; for a corn market concerned about demand, these downward-pointing statistics are a bearish indicator
—Iowa Ethanol Plant the Latest to Halt Production; another ethanol plant calls it quits, at least for now, blaming Trump-administration energy policies; Siouxland Energy Cooperative this week moved to idle its Sioux Center plant blaming exemptions granted by the EPA to oil refineries, which the Siouxland board president said reduced ethanol demand
President Donald Trump will meet on Thursday with U.S. senators to discuss biofuels policy as Trump attempts to find a compromise between Big Oil and Big Corn on an issue that pits two constituencies that are important to Trump’s quest for a second term against each other; the meeting will continue a marathon of discussions the White House has held since last week with biofuel and oil refining advocates
Informa sees 2019 U.S. All Wheat planted area at 45.5 mil acres, harvested 38.4, yield 51.3 bpa, and production 1.971 bil bu
—For 2020, All Wheat plantings 45.4 mil, harvested 39.9, yield 49.7 bpa, and production 1.932 bil bu
Informa’s 2019 U.S. Corn planted acreage is 90.0 mil acres, harvested 82.0, yield 168.2 bpa, and production 13.799 bil bu
For 2020, planted acreage 95.1 mil acres, harvested 87.5, yield 178.7 bpa, production 15.641 bil bu
Informa’s 2019 U.S. Soybean planted acreage is 76.7 mil acres, harvested 75.9, yield 47.9 bpa, and production of 3.633 bil bu
For 2020, planted acreage seen at 84.2 mil acres, harvested 83.4, yield 51.4 bpa, production 4.285 bil
CHINA SELLS 258,873 TONNES OF 2014-2015 CORN, OR 7.41% OF TOTAL OFFER, AT AUCTION OF STATE RESERVES; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE OF CORN IS 1,678 YUAN/TONNE -TRADE CENTRE
—China’s customs said on Monday that it has approved some Argentina meat processing plants for exports, the General Customs Office said
China has released 10,000 tons of pork from state reserves to secure meat supply during a national holiday, the country’s commerce ministry said; Beijing also released 2,400 tons of beef and 1,900 tons of mutton from state reserves earlier this month; the ministry said it will continue to coordinate with other government departments to release meats from state reserves to guarantee supply in the market.
Despite a slower start to soybean planting this year in Brazil, the country’s 2019/2020 corn crop, most of which is planted after the soy harvest, is expected to surpass the 100 million-ton mark; Brazil’s corn crop in the season kicking off this month is likely to yield 102.3 million tons, a 2.3% rise from the government’s estimate for the prior harvest when farmers collected 99.98 million tons of corn; a 3.4% expansion of the planted area will drive up production of corn in Brazil.
Dry weather across most of Ukraine has delayed the sowing of winter grain for next year’s crop in one of the top Black Sea grain exporters; Ukraine and its rival on Black Sea grain exports, Russia, are both looking for rains in coming weeks; in Russia, though, the sowing is still running ahead of the last year’s pace
—Ukrainian farmers have already sown winter grains for next year’s crop on 17% of the planned area, or 1.3 million hectares (3.2 million acres), down from 1.4 million hectares at this time a year ago, the agriculture ministry said; Ukraine sowed about 7.2 million hectares of winter grains for the 2019 harvest
—As of Sept. 18, Russian farmers had already sown winter grains for next year’s crop on 56 percent of the planned area, or 9.8 million hectares, compared with 9.2 million hectares on the same date a year ago, the agriculture ministry said
Selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in Egypt
—Egypt wheat production is still forecast at 8.77 MMT in MY 2019/20, up from 8.45 MMT in MY 2018/19 due to expansion of total area harvested; FAS Cairo forecasts wheat imports in MY 2019/20 to remain unchanged at 12.5 MMT
—Corn imports are forecast to rise to 10 MMT in 2019/20, up three percent from the MY 2018/19 estimate of 9.7 MMT due to increased feed demand from domestic poultry, dairy, and aquaculture sectors
Algeria’s spending on imports of cereals, semolina and flour dropped 12.5% in the first seven months of 2019 compared with the same period a year ago, official figures showed; the government has been trying to reduce purchases of food and other goods in a bid to cut a trade deficit caused by a fall in energy earnings; there have also been attempts to boost domestic cereal production which this year exceeded the 6 million tons harvested in 2018.
Monsoon rains in India in the week through to Wednesday were above average for a third straight week, the weather office said, with floods hitting many districts in the central parts of the country and damaging crops such as soybean and pulses.
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