Tuesday with Matt Bennett 111519

Good Morning!

Harvest is back on but we’re not making a ton of progress.  I don’t want to complain as we are getting something done…but it takes some patience.  Where we can usually pick 120+ acres of corn per day, we’re lucky to get 50 right now.  We are picking in the mud…and can’t run carts, and much of the corn has to be picked one-way, especially where the rows are long.  I will say the Channel 215-60, which is my last number, is standing like a champ.  It was planted June 4th, so it’s a bit wet…but it is what it is here in 2019.  I’m hopeful we can wrap things up this week, but much of that will depend on the weather.  With a day of bean cutting left, we need some sun and wind if they’re going to test.  The other option of course is cutting them with some moisture and taking our lumps…not perfect but it may have to happen.  Keep the updates coming…I appreciate hearing about how you are all getting along.  Good luck this week.  mbennett@AgMarket.Net

The corn market had a bad day while beans held their ground.  Much of the corn weakness was tied to the continued story about weak demand while harvest weather is seen as close to ideal coming up.  While some may see dry weather as ideal, when it’s cold, the ground isn’t going to firm up where it is saturated, but I’ll take dry days over wet any time.  With bean demand staying solid, buyers were more apt to buy beans, even on report week.  While we didn’t see a bit run-up, it was impressive to see beans hang in there on a day when corn was getting smoked.   Outside markets were likely viewed as mixed as the Dollar was higher while crude closed up as well.  December crude settled up 35 cents at $56.55.  This was 88 cents off the high and 72 cents off the low.

Corn – On Sunday night, the corn market wasn’t doing much, but that action sure beat what was going on in the day session.  On the day, December corn closed down 6 cents at $3.83 ¼. This was 4 ½ cents off the high and a quarter of a penny off the low.  Weekly export inspections came in under expectations once again at 276k metric tons…this was over 100k below a week ago levels.  With the trade expecting 54% of the corn crop harvested, just 52% has been harvested so far according to the weekly crop progress report.  This compares to 75% for the 5-year average.  Weather hasn’t cooperated much of late, but it sure appears we’ll have a better run at it coming up, even though temperatures are foretasted to be cold.  I am still of the opinion that corn going to the elevator should be priced across the scale, with the producer shopping for the best basis and deal they can get.  I’m going to stay long corn calls, but a person who is profitable wouldn’t have to do so.  On new corn, I moved to 20% sold, so my average so far is $4.06.  While I’m not bearish, I’ve done enough profitability scenarios to see most producers can pencil a profit at these prices…if they have average yields.

Soybeans – Soybeans on Sunday night into Monday were mostly quiet with a positive bias.  The day session lost some steam but still settled higher on the day.  On the close, November beans were up a penny and a half, settling at $9.25 ¾.  This was 4 cents off the high and 4 ¾ off the low.  Weekly export inspections were again solid at 1.48 million metric tons…even though it was about 100k below a week ago totals.  75% of the beans had been harvested versus 87 on average.  Getting to 75% is a good thing, but a person has to remember we are in November.  It’s tough to get many beans cut in November given the weather on a typical day.  As far as beans are concerned, I’m sitting tight for now.  I’d like to see how this November report turns out on Friday…hopefully we’ll see a bit of a yield drop, which would be supportive indeed.

Let us know if you’d like to discuss any strategies.  Be sure to visit our website at https://agmarket.net/ if you’d like to get more information on the markets.  Be safe out there and have a great week!

 

Matt Bennett

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