Tuesday with Matt

Monday Movie Night – this is all Strategy  102819https://register.gotowebinar.com/recording/7035459748807375107

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Good Morning!

Harvest was brought to a halt when we received 2 ½ to 3 inches on the farms we have left to harvest.  We actually tried to pick some corn on Monday, but it was too muddy.  If it had been too wet, we’d still be running.  The thing that stinks is we are supposed to get rain Tuesday evening into Thursday from this system that is supposed to impact many of us either through snow or rain.  With 2019 already a pain in the hind parts, it seems to be intent on leaving as big a mark as possible.  I’m down to a little over 300 acres of corn and 100 acres of beans.  While that typically wouldn’t take me long, we’re getting late enough in the year that our days are unlikely to give us the chance to be as productive as we’d typically be.  I don’t want to complain much as many of you have shared a situation with me that is considerably more challenging.  I sure hope everyone gets some better weather than is currently forecasted…and can get out and run.  Good luck this week.  mbennett@AgMarket.Net

The corn market was lower while beans were higher on overnight trade.  To be honest, not much changed in the day session as corn lost ground as beans were steady to higher.  With the trade keeping a close eye on US/Chinese talks, beans were able to find support with mostly positive vibes over the weekend.  At the same time, rumors corn isn’t included in any phase I purchases isn’t helping corn prices by any means.  It seems most analysts are looking for production on both corn and beans to be lower on the November report, and with harvest continuing to be well behind normal, it could be tough for the USDA to say otherwise.  Our big issue continues to be demand, especially for corn.  Hopefully, we’ll get some news to ‘feed the bull’ soon as these markets will remain steady to lower in the absence of some bullish news.  Outside markets were likely viewed as mixed as the Dollar was lower while crude closed lower as well.  December crude settled down 85 cents at $55.81.  This was $1.09 off the high and 23 cents off the low.

Corn – On Sunday night, the corn market wasn’t able to put anything together as the path of least resistance proved to be lower for both the overnight and day sessions.  On Monday afternoon, December corn closed down 2 ¾ cents at $3.84. This was 2 ½ cents off the high and three-quarters of a penny off the low.  Weekly export inspections came in under expectations at 381k metric tons…this was about 200k below a week ago levels.  With the trade expecting 43% of the corn crop harvested, just 41% has been harvested so far according to the weekly crop progress report.  This compares to 61% for the 5-year average.  While the weather hasn’t cooperated of late, it appears we won’t see a good week for harvest once again.  I would think next week’s numbers, especially once November 1st hits, would be even more of a shock to some in the market.  While many expect this crop will be harvested regardless, those of us who farm know how hard it is to harvest in the mud…and wet corn to boot.  I’m not terribly excited with the way corn has traded the last two weeks but not too excited about making additional sales either.  I’m going to remain patient…and see how this November report turns out.

Soybeans – Soybeans on Sunday night into Monday were mostly higher but no big fireworks were occurring.  On the close, November beans were up a half-penny, settling at $9.20 ¾.  This was 5 ¼ cents off the high and a half-penny off the low.  Weekly export inspections were solid at 1.57 million metric tons, or about 250k above the total from last week.  62% of the beans had been harvested versus 78 on average.  I would imagine there will be fewer beans harvested this week than last week given the weather much of the corn-belt will be faced with this week.  On the beans, it’s tough to get too down on them when looking at fundamentals from a US perspective.  Supply looks to dwindle while demand seems decent for now.  However, from a world perspective, beans don’t look as attractive.  Additionally, the bean market had a bad week this past week, closing on Friday below several key levels of support.  Once those are violated, we typically see more selling.  Hopefully, we’ll get some bullish news to counter-act this typical mode of conduct.  I’m again going to remain patient for now…and not add to sales.  If you can make money in here and/or need to catch up on sales, I’d consider selling a few.

Let us know if you’d like to discuss any strategies.  Be sure to visit our website at https://AgMarket.Net/ if you’d like to get more information on the markets.  Be safe out there and have a great week!

 

Matt Bennett

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