Today we have export sales and tomorrow USDA
Some producers are buying 2+3 week puts to protect the downside in corn and spending 3-5 cents.
Most producers feel the downside is about 10 cents and the upside is 20+.
The cash market is definitely suggesting futures are 20+ cents too cheap
Last 50% of the crop is just getting started and yield info is key. Current yield reports suggest USDA is close on corn and still very high on beans.
Yesterday’s FBN yield survey at 159 was very believable and certainly valid with as many producers responded. But the trader altitude is still pushing the 170 area. A USDA report that would put numbers more in line with farmer based information would be refreshing.
Here is ADMIS report
By ADM Investor Services Research Team
Wheat prices overnight are up roughly 1 cent in the SRW Wheat, down 1 in HRW, and up 2 for HRS; Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans up 2; Soymeal up $1.50, and; Soyoil down 10 points.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 30 yuan in Soybeans, down 11 in Corn, down 7 in Soymeal, up 26 in Soyoil, and up 20 in Palm Oil.
The Malaysian Palm Oil market was down 28 ringgit at 2,526 (basis January).
Beijing and Washington have agreed to remove existing tariffs in tranches, China’s Commerce Ministry said Thursday. “This is what [the two sides] agreed on following careful and constructive negotiations over the past two weeks,” ministry spokesman Gao Feng said at a routine briefing. If a phase-one deal is signed, China and the U.S. should remove the tariffs at the same time and by the same amount, Mr. Gao said, adding that it was an important condition for a deal. Removing all existing tariffs has always been Beijing’s bottom line to reach a trade deal with Washington. The U.S. has for months balked at scrapping all tariffs, aiming to keep at least some in place as a way to pressure China.
The U.S. 11 to 16 Day Outlook for the Plains and Midwest continues with a warming temp forecast to the region for the period with but an increase in precip.
The South American weather forecast still has rains for most of Brazil with rainfall also in Argentina except in the region of Buenos Aires. Temps average to below in Argentina, average to above in Brazil.
In deliveries, Soybeans totaled ZERO contracts.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 15,000 Corn; sold 6,000 Soybeans; sold 4,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 4,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 8,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 118,000 Corn; net long 71,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 37,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 81,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 1,900 contracts; HRW Wheat up 2,000; Corn up 3,200; Soybeans up 13,000 contracts; Soymeal up 6,100 lots, and; Soyoil up 695.
There were changes in registrations (Rice up 10)—Registrations total ZERO contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 216; Soybeans 1,769; Soyoil 1,516 lots; Soymeal 710; Rice 805; HRW Wheat 11, and; HRS Wheat 669 contracts.
TODAY—–WEEKLY EXPORT SALES—
In tender activity—Japan bought 123,000t U.S./Canadian/Australian wheat—-Syria looks to have passed on 150,000t Russian wheat—S. Korea seek 69,000t optional-origin corn—
Trade estimates for USDA weekly grain, soy export sales – Reuters News
| Trade estimates for 2019-20 | Trade estimates for 2020-21 | |
| Wheat | 350,000-600,000 | 0 |
| Corn | 300,000-650,000 | 0 |
| Soybeans | 600,000-1,200,000 | 0 |
| Soymeal | 150,000-300,000 | 0 |
| Soyoil | 5,000-25,000 | 0 |
Wire story reports it is no secret that overseas demand for U.S. corn has been downright terrible as of late, and relief does not seem likely in the immediate term as purchase commitments remain dismal; forward sales for U.S. soybeans are nothing to brag about either, but soy exporters have enjoyed more success recently than those for corn.
World food prices rose for the first time in five months in October, boosted by jumps in quotations for sugar and cereals, the United Nations food agency said; the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) food price index, which measures monthly changes for a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy products, meat and sugar, averaged 172.7 points in October, up 1.7% on the previous month and 6.0% year-on-year; FAO also predicted that cereal production would be 2.704 billion tons in 2019, slightly lower than its last forecast.
The middle and lower reaches of China’s Yangtze river are suffering from the most severe drought in 40 years, with temperatures up to 3 degrees Celsius higher than normal in some regions, the official People’s Daily said; citing the ministry in charge of handling natural disasters, the newspaper said the drought was affecting local grain production, and had delayed rapeseed planting in the region.
Global meat shippers have three years to make the most of the outbreak of a fatal pig disease in China before Chinese pork imports peak, according to a report released by the U.S. pork industry, which is competing for sales against Europe and South America; the forecast issued on Wednesday starts a clock ticking for companies to profit from the epidemic of African swine fever (ASF), which has killed up to half of China’s hog herd since August 2018 and pushed Chinese pork prices to record highs.
—African swine fever (ASF) will cut pork output in China, the world’s largest producer, by at least 20% in 2019, the United Nations’ food agency said on Thursday, doubling the decline it had expected six months ago
USDA attache sees Russia 2019/20 wheat crop at 74 MMT – Reuters News
—selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache
—Russia’s grain crop in MY (marketing year) 2019/20 will be abundant, particularly for barley and corn. FAS Moscow decreased its 2019/20 total wheat production forecast by 5 million metric tons (MMT) to 74 MMT reflecting official and unofficial data from the Russian Government and industry experts following initial results of the 2019 harvest
Australia will offer farmers hurt by drought up to A$1 billion ($688.10 million) in cheap loans and grants, Prime Minister Scott Morrison is expected to announce on Thursday, as the government seeks to curb rising discontent from rural voters.
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