Todays news
Bloomberg reporting that from China contacts the long term phase 2 deal unlikely to happen as long as Trump is in office. However phase 1 will probably happen. China now thinking they will reduce or eliminate tariffs on 50 bil ag goods and then let the market determine how much is bought.
Good Morning!
I hope you’re getting more done this week than what I am. After a wet weekend with 2 ½ to 3+ inches on the fields we still need to harvest, we tried farming on Monday. It didn’t go well…then we got another .8 to 1+ inches on Tuesday/Wednesday. Given the time of year, we all know the ground doesn’t dry out too fast. The interesting thing for me is the fields we’re trying to harvest haven’t been ripped for a few years due to soil types and the way it lays. I figured it would hold us up ok…but now those who have tracks will be the envy of everyone around. I’ve also heard good things about the LSW floater tires, but we’re going to have to make due with what we have. I know many of you have equally or more challenging situations out there, so good luck. I hope your situations get better. Keep the yields coming. matt@AgMarket.Net
The corn and bean markets were boring on the overnight market, but the day session saw a little rally for corn. With beans struggling to get to positive territory, the corn market was able to steadily build gains and settle close to the highs. While the back and forth on US/Chinese relations continue, it appears Chile cancelling the November 17th meeting is the latest in potential issues around signing phase I. With weather slowing down harvest in many areas, some support wouldn’t be out of the question. IF we have the kind of progress I expect this week, we could be at just half finished on corn harvest into the month of November…simply seeing how slow we are this late with a good chunk of the corn-belt saturated is likely to keep us from dropping anytime soon. The outside markets were mixed, as the Dollar index was lower on the day while crude also fell. December crude oil was down 48 cents at $55.06. The close was 67 cents off the high and 64 off the low.
Corn – The corn market was quiet on the overnight but found a bid during the day session. December corn ended the day at $3.90 ¾, up 4 ½ cents. This was a half-penny off the high and 5 ½ cents off the low. The EIA report from the Department of Energy showed corn usage for ethanol up around a half-million bushels at just under 100.5 million bushels. This again is the best usage we’ve seen in several weeks. With that being said, much attention has been paid to not only corn usage for ethanol but export demand for corn. There is no question demand needs to improve, but at the same time, supply is certainly in question. With yields quite variable across the corn-belt, I would assume the change for USDA would have been minimal moving forward if we didn’t have freezes, snow and floods to deal with. Harvest is well behind schedule, and any time we see a big delay, harvest losses increase. I will continue to be patient, not making any sales at the present time. I’d like to see how harvest pans out and see what the USDA has to say on the November report.
Soybeans – Soybeans couldn’t get anything going on either the overnight or day session. November beans ended day down 2 ¼ cents at $9.16. The close was 5 ½ cents off the high and three-quarters of a penny off the low. With the back and forth drama with the US and China seeming to be on the positive swing this week, beans were trying to hold steady. However, with the meetings in Chile cancelled to massive protests, the signing of the Phase I deal appears to need a new home. This spooked the bean market on a day when news otherwise was sparse. The weather should also have an adverse impact on soybeans as there will still likely be over 25% out in the field after this week is over. Given how sensitive beans are, yield is likely to drop more due to harvest losses on beans relative to corn. I’m not necessarily bullish beans but am sitting in a good place with regards to sales. If you aren’t over half sold on beans, I’d sure consider it if these prices work on your farm. Given how much basis has improved for most of us, it’s tough for me to look at a dollar+ increase in value since the start of harvest and scoff at it. Let us know if you need help with your marketing plan on beans…it’s tricky for sure, but we’d be thrilled to help.
Call us if you want to talk positions or strategy. If you want more information on the markets, be sure to visit my team’s website at https://www.agmarket.net/
Matt Bennett
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