Good Morning!
I hope all is well for you and your family this week. We are again in Georgia this week…and it’s hot. Man is it hot. Fortunately, the place our daughter and son-in-law have been living has a pool. It’s given the kids a chance to cool off in the afternoon…as we’ve tried to get around and see some neat things during the day. While Columbus, Georgia isn’t necessarily a destination for a lot of people, we’ve found some cool things to see like a animal safari that was surprisingly impressive for being in a rural area in Georgia. We wanted to go to the National Infantry Museum as we’d heard it was super-impressive, but they were closed down for the week. Either way, this week has been a good week for us as a family to get away from home on an affordable trip and forget about CV-19 and all the fun that comes with it. From all kids having to wear face coverings at school to not getting the chance to play the sports they love, it’s a frustrating time for kids as well as us adults. Hopefully this will all be past us soon enough. Many of you have reached out, especially from Iowa stating how dry you are. I sure hope you catch a rain soon…we have a shot or two this week, which would be a great way to head into August for sure. I appreciate the feedback. matt@agmarket.net
The corn and bean markets both were fairly quiet on the overnight with some fade leaking into corn before the overnight session closed. The day saw both corn and beans head a bit lower as buyers were on the sidelines. With negative news seemingly every day on the US/China relationship as well as talk of the US crop potentially being a record, it seems the path of least resistance is currently lower. Outside markets should have been supportive as September crude oil settled up 23 cents at $41.27. This was 30 cents off the high and 30 off the low. The DOW was up 143 points at 26,440. The Dollar continued its bludgeoning, settling down .215, closing at 93.432.
Corn – The corn market seems to have shed the news of lower acres and big Chinese demand as rallies seem tough to come by. September corn closed 4 ½ cents lower at $3.15 ½. This was six cents off the high and a half-penny off the low of the day. The EIA report from the Department of Energy showed corn usage for ethanol at the highest level we’ve seen in over three months…and up from last week by about 5 million bushels. Usage came in at 96 million bushels of corn usage, which was up for 11 times in the last 12 weeks. This corn market looks sick. It proves to us we’re going to need big demand to prop up a chance to hold things together. With some in the industry talking a really big corn yield…think 180+, it makes it tough to get corn bears talked into buying back some contracts. Additionally, it feels the market has a tone of people ‘giving up’ on old bushels anyway…as some posted basis levels softened a bit this week. As always, we have to have a plan. It’s tough to market on the fly, especially when markets are fast. I know it’s tough to sell down here…but take these prices times your expected production and it may help shed light on what will and won’t work on your farm when it comes to your marketing plan.
Soybeans – Soybeans haven’t had the best week, and while hopes were beans might rebound a bit, it wasn’t meant to be as sellers remained inactive. August beans settled 5 ¼ cents lower at $8.91 ½. The close was 6 ½ cents off the high while settling on the low of the day. The bean market all along has felt all along like the market I’d want to be long, but as we get closer to harvest, it seems even huge unexpected demand out of China wouldn’t be enough to keep these beans above $9. While parts of Iowa are still plenty dry, the trade seems more than satisfied with where the crop is given we have a good/excellent rating at 73%. As I said earlier this week, I sold some beans and am now 40% sold heading into harvest. Please run the yield you’re currently expecting times today’s fall price…you might be surprised what profit margins are. This bean crop could be a really big one…but only time will tell if that’s going to happen. Make sure you feel good about your production before getting too aggressive.
Call us if you want to talk positions or strategy…or simply bend our ear. If you want more information on the markets, be sure to visit my team’s website at https://www.agmarket.net/
Matt Bennett
217-273-1133 – Work
@chief321 – Twitter
matt@bennettconsulting.net – E-mail
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