I hope things are running smooth around your place. I am on the road again this week as meeting season is in full-swing. It was sure nice to get some time with family over the weekend…but this week I have Farm Futures Summit in Coralville, Iowa then heading on a Channel trip with some producers from the east coast. Fortunately, my boss (Tiffany) gets to go on this four-day trip that starts this weekend. Next week is Top Producer Seminar and then I get to go home for a few day. For those who haven’t signed up for me and my buddies with AgMarket.Net’s meeting, it is February 3rd and 4th in Council Bluffs, Iowa. https://www.agmarket.net/its-profit-not-price/ I’m looking forward to seeing plenty of my Channel friends at this meeting…reach out if you want to attend. matt@AgMarket.Net
The corn and bean markets were trading higher on the overnight before turning to more of a two-sided trade during the day session. With some talk on the overnight of China possibly starting on their buying spree sooner rather than later, the market seemed upbeat. I would imagine this jumping around will be here for a while as the market struggles between the excitement of purchases and the disappointment of overall export sales…hopefully the Chinese will buy a ton and we can stay excited for a while…but I’m not holding my breath. The outside markets were mixed to bearish, as the Dollar index was flat on the day while crude oil was lower. March crude oil was down $1.76 at $56.62. The close was $1.76 off the high and 8 cents off the low.
Corn – The corn market was looking solid on the overnight market and early in the day session, showing nice gains. However, as the day wore on, gains faded and corn settled mixed. On the close, March corn was up a penny and a quarter at $3.88 ¾. This was 2 ¼ cents off the high and 2 cents off the low. There was no EIA report from the Department of Energy due to the holiday-shortened week. On Tuesday we received weekly export inspections that generally come out on Monday. Those were less-than-impressive at 346k metric tons. Hopefully we’ll start seeing inspections increase…especially knowing corn will become available out of South America in the not-too-distant future. My thoughts on the corn market remain one of a supportive one for flat-cash values. I have to think given how strong basis has been that any dip in the market will see basis values strengthen. On new crop though, it’s tough to get too bullish with the acreage projections most are putting out. I like managing some risk at and above $4 basis the Dec. Give us a ring if you want to discuss your corn strategy.
Soybeans – Soybeans traded higher on the overnight as well before turning lower and spending much of the day session in the red. On Wednesday, March beans settled 2 ¼ cents lower at $9.13 ¾. The close was 8 ¼ cents off the high and a half-penny off the low. The bean market can’t seem to catch a break. With some nice gains earlier on, it appeared beans might heal up on Wednesday…but buyers are certainly on the sidelines for the time being. Weekly export inspections on Tuesday morning were robust at 1.12 million metric tons. While I’d like to think we can continue to see numbers like this, we’re living on short time I’m afraid with 1st crop Brazilian soybeans set to hit the market in the next few weeks. The ratio from new-crop beans to new-crop corn is similar to a week ago at 2.37/1. I’m not real bullish beans…it appears the market is intent on driving them lower for the time being. However, Chinese business could certainly change things around quickly. For right now, we need to manage price risk…and lock in profit where it is present.
Call me if you want to talk positions or strategy. If you want more information on the markets, be sure to visit my team’s website at https://www.agmarket.net/
Matt Bennett
217-273-1133 – Work
@chief321 – Twitter
matt@bennettconsulting.net – E-mail
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