early AM comments from ADMIS

By ADM Investor Services Research Team


Wheat prices overnight are down roughly 1 cent in the SRW Wheat, down 2 in HRW, and down 1 for HRS; Corn is down 2 cents; Soybeans down 6; Soymeal down $0.50, and; Soyoil down 35 points.


For the week, Winter Wheat prices were down roughly 14 cents for Soft Red Winter, down 14 in the Hard Red Winter, and up 2 for Hard Red Spring; Corn was down 19 cents; Soybeans down 33; Soymeal down $11.00, and; Soyoil down 55 points (crushing margins were up roughly 3 cents at $1.17, oil-share was unchanged at 31%).


Chinese Ag futures (September) settled up 9 yuan in Soybeans, up 14 in Corn, down 8 in Soymeal, down 6 in Soyoil, and down 20 in Palm Oil.


The Malaysian Palm Oil market was up 1 ringgit at 1,984 (basis July) searching for demand prospects.


China’s door to talks with the United States about their trade dispute is always open, but China will not yield on important issues of principle, state media said; there are no winners in a trade war, and China does not want to fight, but is not afraid to do so.


President Donald Trump on Friday ordered the U.S. trade representative to start the process of raising tariffs on all remaining imports from China


Three main differences remain in the China-U.S. trade talks, including the removal of all the additional tariffs, Chinese state media said; the ruling Communist Party’s official People’s Daily and the official Xinhua news agency said that in addition to the lifting of the additional tariffs, the differences centered on trade purchases and a “balanced” text to any trade deal.


U.S. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said on Friday that President Donald Trump had asked him to create a plan to help American farmers cope with the heavy impact of the U.S.-China trade war on agriculture.


The U.S. Midwest weather forecast has some spotty showers across the Midwest this week but, things should be mainly dry across the region into the weekend; the following week sees rains in the western region of the Midwest early in the week by the European model, the GFS model has more widespread rainfall—below average temps give way to above average in the west and average in the east by the end of the week with the weekend and early next week seeing above average temps.


The Southern U.S. Plains looks fairly dry for the week ahead; a front will then work through the region over the weekend with models differing on their rain outlay—temps will be running below average.


The Northern U.S. Plains looks to be dry through Thursday; fairly soaking rains look to arrive heading into the weekend with an additional rain event early next week.


The U.S. Delta will experience less frequent and less significant rainfall in the next couple of weeks; the Southeast will get some rains early in the week and a little more midweek; net drying is expected most other days during the next two weeks.


In deliveries, Soymeal totaled 4 lots; Soyoil 137; Rice ZERO; Corn 114; HRW Wheat ZERO; Oats ZERO; Soybeans 315; SRW Wheat 5, and; HRS Wheat 275.


The player sheet had funds net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 18,000 Corn; sold 7,000 contracts of Soybeans; net sold 5,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 4,000 Soyoil.


We estimate Managed Money net short 94,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 336,000 Corn; net short 184,000 contracts of Soybeans; short 47,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 74,000 Soyoil.


Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 12,700 contracts; HRW Wheat up 1,100; Corn up 11,400; Soybeans down 1,300 contracts; Soymeal up 3,900 lots, and; Soyoil up 6,900 lots.


There were changes in registrations (Corn down 25; Soybeans down 303; Soymeal down 56)—Registrations total 251 contracts for SRW Wheat; 2 Oats; Corn 1,187; Soybeans 1,038; Soyoil 3,547 lots; Soymeal 74; Rice 642; HRW Wheat 2, and; HRS Wheat 429 contracts.





In tender activity—Taiwan seeks 111,000t U.S. wheat—Algeria seeks 50,000t optional-origin wheat—Ethiopia bought 400,000t optional-origin wheat—



USDA May crop supply/demand report results


USDA 2018-19 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks

USDA May Average of Range of USDA April
2018-19 analysts’ analysts’ 2018-19
end-stocks estimates estimates end-stocks
estimates estimates
Wheat 1.127 1.097 1.079-1.187 1.087
Corn 2.095 2.055 2.011-2.135 2.035
Soybeans 0.995 0.920 0.880-1.010 0.895



USDA 2019-20 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks

USDA May Average of Range of USDA April
2019-20 analysts’ analysts’ 2019-20
end-stocks estimates estimates end-stocks
estimates estimates
Wheat 1.141 1.060 0.947-1.129 NA
Corn _2.485_ 2.131 1.787-2.387 NA
Soybeans 0.970 0.910 0.786-1.103 NA



USDA 2018-19 world grain and soybean ending stocks

USDA May Average of Range of USDA April
2018-19 analysts’ analysts’ 2018-19
end-stocks estimates estimates end-stocks
estimates estimates
Wheat 274.98 275.89 274.10-277.50 275.61
Corn 325.94 316.00 314.00-318.20 314.01
Soybeans _113.18_ 108.50 107.00-110.60 107.36



USDA 2019-20 world grain and soybean ending stocks

USDA May Average of Range of USDA April
2019-20 analysts’ analysts’ 2019-20
end-stocks estimates estimates end-stocks
estimates estimates
Wheat _293.01_ 277.42 259.00-290.00 NA
Corn 314.71 304.71 271.20-322.00 NA
Soybeans 113.09 109.55 100.00-120.00 NA



USDA 2019-20 U.S. wheat production

USDA May Average of Range of USDA
2019-20 analysts’ analysts’ 2018-19
estimate estimates estimates output
All wheat _1.897_ 1.909 1.815-1.986 1.884
All winter _1.268_ 1.277 1.116-1.406 1.184
Hard red winter _0.780_ 0.767 0.624-0.905 0.662
Soft red winter _0.265_ 0.277 0.250-0.302 0.286
White winter _0.224_ 0.232 0.201-0.252 0.236



USDA 2018-19 South American corn and soy production

USDA May Average of Range of USDA April
2018-19 analysts’ analysts’ 2018-19
estimate estimates estimates estimate
Corn 49.00 48.08 46.50-50.00 47.00
Soybeans 56.00 55.72 55.00-57.00 55.00
Corn 100.00 96.66 95.00-98.50 96.00
Soybeans 117.00 116.99 116.00-118.00 117.00



“Speculators increase bearish bets” is quickly becoming one of the most reusable headlines in Chicago-traded grains and oilseeds this year, and the title was applicable yet again last week as money managers’ combined net short position hit another record; market participants have become increasingly discouraged over the U.S.-China trade negotiations, though the prospects of a deal supported Chicago futures in recent months; however, investors appear to have been on the right track with their building pessimism if the U.S. government’s latest supply and demand projections are any indication.


‘Oil World’ Weekly

US Soybean Stocks Becoming Even More Burdensome

The USA raised taxes on imports from China with effect of May 10

—Record oilseed production is promoting record crushings in Ukraine, Russia and other C.I.S countries; exports of veg oil and oilmeals up sharply in 2018/19

—Canadian canola stocks reached a record at the end of March, following sharply lower disposals so far this season

—Growing demand and a slowdown in production further reduced Malaysian palm oil stocks in March

—South American soybean shipments dropped in Mar/April 2019, mainly on account of China

—Australian canola exports exceeded expectations in March, reducing available supplies for shipment in Apr/Dec to a minimum


Total 2018-crop wheat quantity outstanding into the government’s 9-month price support loan program was 41.201 million bushels, a decrease of 0.733 million bushels during the week ended May 6

—Total 2018-crop corn quantity outstanding was 632.404 million bushels, a decrease of 3.863 million bushels

—Total 2018-crop soybean quantity outstanding was 142.423 million bushels, a decrease of 0.662 million bushels


For the first time on Friday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau linked China’s ban on imports of Canadian canola seed to the broader trade and geopolitical dispute between the U.S. and China; Canada has become ensnared in the dispute between Washington and Beijing because of its role in the detention of Meng Wanzhou, Huawei Technologies Co.’s chief financial officer.


The Cuban government announced Friday that it is launching widespread rationing of chicken, eggs, rice, beans, soap and other basic products in the face of a grave economic crisis; the Commerce Minister said that various forms of rationing would be employed in order to deal with shortages of staple foods; she blamed the hardening of the U.S. trade embargo by the Trump administration; economists give equal or greater blame to a plunge in aid from Venezuela.


Ukraine’s grain exports have reached 43.5 million tons so far in the 2018/19 season, compared with 34.9 million tons at the same point last season, the agriculture ministry said; the ministry said exports could rise to about 49 million tons in the season that ends in June, up from 39.4 million tons the previous season; Ukraine had exported almost 25 million tons of corn and 14.5 million tons of wheat as of May 10.


Germany’s winter rapeseed planted area for the 2019 harvest has been reduced by 27.5% on the year to around 886,000 hectares, Germany’s national statistics office said; a major reduction was widely anticipated after unusually dry autumn weather following last summer’s heatwave meant the ground was too parched to carry out rapeseed sowings in some areas

—Germany’s winter wheat sown area for the 2019 harvest has been expanded by 5% to 3.03 million hectares, the statistics office said


Selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in Nigeria:

—FAS Lagos (Post) forecasts Nigeria’s wheat imports in MY 2019/20 at 5.6 MMT, up almost four percent compared to MY 2018/19 based on growing food, seed and industrial (FSI) usage; the rise in FSI wheat consumption is attributable to population growth of about 2.54 percent (2015-20), with Nigerians increasingly shifting to consuming greater amounts of wheat-flour based products



World Weather, Inc.



MONDAY                                                                       7 DAY PRECIP FORECAST