AM early calls

By ADM Investor Services Research Team

 

Wheat prices overnight are up roughly 2 cents in the SRW Wheat, up 4 in HRW, and unchanged for HRS; Corn is up 7 cents; Soybeans up 14; Soymeal up $3.00, and; Soyoil up 25 points.

 

Chinese Ag futures (September) settled up 57 yuan in Soybeans, up 6 in Corn, up 5 in Soymeal, up 20 in Soyoil, and up 4 in Palm Oil.

 

The Malaysian Palm Oil market was up 27 ringgit at 2,012 (basis July) tracking rival soyoil prices, weaker ringgit.

 

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G20 gathering in Japan next month; Trump said his meeting with Xi could be fruitful

—U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday he was has not made a decision to go ahead with tariffs on another $325 billion in goods from China

—A list of products subject to possible U.S. tariffs on about $300 billion of Chinese imports will include cellphones and laptop computers but not pharmaceuticals and rare earth materials, the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office said

—President Donald Trump said on Monday that his administration was planning to provide about $15 billion in aid to help U.S. farmers whose products may be targeted with tariffs by China amid a deepening trade war; we’re going to take the highest year, the biggest purchase that China has ever made with our farmers, which is about $15 billion, and do something reciprocal to our farmers so our farmers can do well; he did not provide any more details on what kind of an aid package it would be

 

The U.S. Winter Wheat Headed crop was rated 64% good to excellent (trade estimate was 64%) versus 64% a week ago and 36% a year ago.

 

The U.S. Spring Wheat crop was 45% planted (trade estimate was 35%) versus 22% a week ago, 54% a year ago, 67% average.

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U.S. Corn plantings 30% complete (trade estimate was 35%) versus 23% a week ago, 59% a year ago, 66% average.

 

U.S. farmers planted 30% of the U.S. 2019 corn crop as of Sunday, the slowest pace for mid-May since 2013, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported; the figure lagged the five-year average of 66% as well as the average estimate in a Reuters analyst survey of 35%; wet weather and cool conditions have slowed field work this spring across much of the U.S. Corn Belt, prompting some to speculate whether farmers might plant less corn, or switch some acres to soybeans, which can be seeded later in the season.

 

The U.S. Oat crop is 62% planted versus 50% a week ago, 70% last year, and 83% average.

 

U.S. Soybeans planted totaled 9% (trade estimate was 15%) versus 6% a week ago, 32% last year, and 29% average.

 

Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had Wheat exports running unchanged from a year ago (down 2% last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 3% increase on the year, Corn 5% ahead (7% a week ago) with the USDA down 6% for the season and Soybeans 27% behind (27% behind last week) with the USDA having a 17% decline forecasted on the year

 

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast still looks favorable with only a couple of weak systems moving through the region with light amounts of precip and scattered coverage; overall, things look dry for the region over the next 5 days; models differ for the weekend and the middle of next week with rainfall seen favoring the western Midwest on the European model while the GFS has rainfall for the entire region—temps will be varying from below average to average to above across varying parts of the region.

 

The Southern U.S. Plains look fairly dry for the week ahead; a front will then work through the region over the weekend with another the middle of next week—temps will be running average to a bit below average.

 

The Northern U.S. Plains look to be dry through Thursday; rains return heading into the weekend with an additional rain event early next week—temps will be running below average.

 

The U.S. Delta and the Southeast will see a drying trend during the next two weeks with only one round of organized rain expected through at least the next ten days.

 

In deliveries, Soymeal totaled 1 lot; Soyoil 28; Rice 12; Corn 79; HRW Wheat ZERO; Oats ZERO; Soybeans 236; SRW Wheat 23, and; HRS Wheat 40.

 

The player sheet had funds net buyers of 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 17,000 Corn; sold 3,000 contracts of Soybeans; net bought 3,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 1,000 Soyoil.

 

We estimate Managed Money net short 88,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 319,000 Corn; net short 187,000 contracts of Soybeans; short 44,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 73,000 Soyoil.

 

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 3,000 contracts; HRW Wheat up 2,800; Corn up 23,000; Soybeans up 4,700 contracts; Soymeal up 3,400 lots, and; Soyoil up 9,600 lots.

 

There were changes in registrations (Oats down 2; Corn down 37; Soymeal down 12; Rice up 10; HRS Wheat up 142)—Registrations total 251 contracts for SRW Wheat; 2 Oats; Corn 1,187; Soybeans 1,038; Soyoil 3,547 lots; Soymeal 74; Rice 642; HRW Wheat 2, and; HRS Wheat 429 contracts.

 

 

TODAY—–DELIVERABLE STOCKS—TODAY IS LAST TRADING DAY FOR MAY FUTURES—

 

In tender activity—Taiwan seeks 65,000t optional-origin corn—

 

 

China’s pork prices are being kept in check even as pig production continues to drop, with tough new rules on slaughterhouses crimping trade and pushing frozen pork stocks onto the market, according to analysts; hog prices in the world’s top producer rose sharply in early March as losses from an epidemic of incurable African swine fever started to impact supplies; the prices levelled off in mid-March, however, and in many areas have declined in May, confounding anticipation of a rapid rise in pork prices after widespread culling; that’s because Beijing has rolled out new rules requiring slaughterhouses and processing plants to test for the African swine fever virus, slowing down business at many facilities and denting demand.

 

Brazil soybean premiums for June rose to $0.92 per bushel on Monday, in reaction to a U.S.-China trade war that is expected to spur demand, according to the Center for Studies in Advanced Applied Economics (Cepea); amid a fall in the Chicago soybean contract and the weakening of the Brazilian currency against the U.S. dollar, port premiums at Paranaguá rose by almost 10 cents from Friday, reaching the highest level since Dec. 7; that more than offset a daily fall of nearly 7 cents on the July soybean contract traded in Chicago, used as a benchmark for Brazil’s soybean shipments.

 

Russian wheat export prices continued to fall last week as trading activity was depressed by national holidays in Russia and an ongoing shift among exporters to trading the new crop; Black Sea prices for Russian wheat with 12.5 percent protein content and for delivery in May were $181 per ton on a free on board (FOB) basis at the end of last week, down from $211 in late April, Russian agricultural consultancy IKAR said; SovEcon, another Moscow-based consultancy, quoted FOB wheat prices down $6.5 at $204.5 a ton; it quoted new crop as trading at $180-$185 a ton.

—Russia’s May exports of wheat, barley and maize (corn) are estimated at 1.25 million tons, down from 2.4 million tons in April, the SovEcon agriculture consultancy said

 

Favorable weather is likely to increase winter wheat yield in Ukraine, helping the country to raise wheat output by around 9 percent to 26.7 million tons, Ukraine’s national research institute IAE said; Ukraine also may increase harvest of barley, oats, peas, rapeseed but reduce output of maize, sunseed and soybean; it added that Ukrainian grain harvest could fall 2.3 percent to 68.4 million tons.

 

France’s farm ministry in its first estimate of the country’s 2019 grain maize area put sowings at 1.43 million hectares (mln ha), up 4.9% versus 2018

—the ministry kept unchanged its estimate of this year’s soft wheat area at 5.0 mln ha, up 2.9% from last year

—It cut slightly its estimate of the 2019 rapeseed area to 1.31 mln ha from 1.32 mln seen last month, down 19.1% on year

 

Germany’s 2019 wheat harvest will increase 19.8% on the year to 24.28 million tons as hopes of a recovery intensify after drought caused massive harvest damage last year, the country’s association of farm cooperatives (DRV) said; crops in Germany and much of west Europe crop suffered huge damaged from a drought and heatwave in summer 2018

—Germany’s 2019 winter rapeseed crop will fall 17.1% percent on the year to 3.04 million tonnes after reduced sowings, the association said

—The association had in its previous harvest estimate on April 16 estimated Germany’s 2019 wheat harvest at 24.44 million tons and the winter rapeseed crop at 3.24 million tons

 

Around 1.2 million pigs have been culled in Vietnam due to the risk of being infected with African swine fever, the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development said; the virus had spread to 29 provinces, among them Dong Nai in the south, which is the largest supplier of pork in the southeast Asian country; authorities have warned against the fast spread of the virus and the difficulty in detecting it, resulting in the approval of a series of measures to prevent it from affecting more hog farms.

 

Cheap imported pork will soon be a thing of the past; in recent years, pork has been the cheapest red meat in New Zealand stores; the current weighted average price for pigs in New Zealand is $3.70 per kilogram, compared with $5.50 per kg for beef and $7.50 per kg for lamb; projected higher prices are the result of African swine fever decimating Chinese piggeries; China is the world’s largest pork consumer and producer but in the past few months has had to cull most of its sows to try to check the deadly disease; it is now importing from countries which have traditionally exported to New Zealand, including the United States and Canada.

 

Indian state-run trading company MMTC has again postponed the deadline for offer submissions in an international tender to buy and import yellow corn (maize), this time to May 22.

 

World Weather, Inc.

TUESDAY                                                                       7 DAY PRECIP FORECAST

 U.S. 6-10 DAY FORECAST (TEMP/PRECIP)

U.S. 8-14 DAY FORECAST (TEMP/PRECIP)

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