AgDay 111319

https://www.agweb.com/article/marketing-opportunities-2020

Wheat prices overnight are down roughly 3 cents in the SRW Wheat, down 3 in HRW, and down 2 for HRS; Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans up 1; Soymeal up $0.50, and; Soyoil down 15 points. US Dollar is higher. US stocks are lower. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. Traders will be watching impeachment hearings in Washington to get a handle on financial and commodity risk going forward.

 

Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 10 yuan in Soybeans, down 2 in Corn, up 12 in Soymeal, down 48 in Soyoil, and down 24 in Palm Oil.

 

The Malaysian Palm Oil market was down 19 ringgit at 2,585 (basis January) on more position evening.

 

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast continues with fair harvest conditions for the region over the next week to ten days. Any precip activity looks to move through the northern region of the area. Temps look to work from below average to average.

 

The South American weather forecast still has rainfall for most of Brazil over the next 5 days. The 6 to 10 day forecast for Brazil is rains mostly in the northern regions with lesser amounts in the south. The 6 to 10 day forecast has rainfall for most Argentine growing regions. Temps are seen running near average in most of South America.

 

In deliveries, Soybeans totaled 25 contracts.

 

The player sheet had funds net buyer of 8,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 16,000 Corn; bought 1,000 Soybeans; bought 3,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net sold 5,000 Soyoil.

 

We estimate Managed Money net short 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 123,000 Corn; net long 48,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 37,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 79,000 Soyoil.

 

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 895 contracts; HRW Wheat down 2,200; Corn up 45; Soybeans up 5,100 contracts; Soymeal down 840 lots, and; Soyoil up 3,000.

 

There were changes in registrations (Soybeans down 166 contracts, Rice down 92)—

Registrations total ZERO contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 216; Soybeans 1,803; Soyoil 1,516 lots; Soymeal 710; Rice 713; HRW Wheat 11, and; HRS Wheat 669 contracts.

 

 

Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had Wheat exports running 23% ahead of a year ago with a 2% increase forecasted, Corn 61% behind a year ago with a 10% decline seen and Soybeans 9% ahead of a year ago with a 2% increase forecasted

 

CBOT deliverable grain stocks summary – Reuters News

 

Location                   WHEAT        CORN    SOYBEANS        OATS        RICE

TOTALS                    36,833       3,034      20,132      11,499      19,528

Week Ago Totals           40,457       2,386      18,390      11,638      20,167

Year Ago Totals           66,936       7,695      16,288      18,423      23,933

 

 

KCBT weekly deliverable HRW wheat stocks – Reuters News

 

HUTCHINSON, KANSAS

11/08/19            Wk Ago            Yr Ago

TOTAL STOCKS                               25,122            25,144            29,002

 

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI/KANSAS

11/08/19            Wk Ago            Yr Ago

TOTAL STOCKS                               12,824            12,928            12,057

 

SALINA, KANSAS

11/08/19            Wk Ago            Yr Ago

TOTAL STOCKS                               29,500            29,912            36,901

 

WICHITA, KANSAS

11/08/19            Wk Ago            Yr Ago

TOTAL STOCKS                               35,849            36,917            44,871

 

 

MGEX Deliverable Hard Red Spring Wheat Stocks – Nov 12

(In 000’s)          Mpls     Dul    Mpls    Dul     Mpls     Dul

Nov 8             week ago        year ago

total stocks        4,733  18,471   5,272  19,512   1,558  19,723

 

 

U.S. Winter Wheat Plantings were seen 92% complete versus 92% average

 

U.S. Corn harvest was 66% complete versus 85% average

 

U.S Soybean harvest was 85% complete versus 92% average

 

Tyson Foods dominates the US chicken business, but operating stumbles at plants in recent quarters have hampered profits in the Arkansas meat giant’s core business

—U.S. pork prices have increased in recent weeks as a fatal pig disease in Asia is reducing global meat supplies, the chief executive of Tyson Foods said on Tuesday, after the company posted lower-than-expected quarterly earnings; the price increase is probably the first time the United States has been significantly affected by African swine fever

 

Dean Foods is filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and may sell the company off to the Dairy Farmers of America.

 

Canadian Pacific Railway says it delivered 2.66M metric tons of grain and grain products to market in October, setting a monthly record for the railroad; CP says its new high-capacity grain hopper cars helped it break the mark of 2.64M metric tons it set in April.

 

Brazilian corn exporters are enjoying a banner year thanks to a big crop and improved logistics, burnishing the country’s status as a top global corn supplier and threatening the United States’ traditional dominance in the arena.

 

 

 

Brazilian soybean exports to China could fall from 60 million tons in the 2018-19 season to 53 million tons in 2019-20 in the case of a trade deal between the Asian country and the United States, said consultancy Agroconsult

—expects Brazilian exports to China to fall less if a trade deal is not reached, projecting soybean exports at 57 million tons

 

  • BRAZIL 2019/2020 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT RECORD HIGH OF 120.86 MILLION TNS VERSUS 120.4 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER ESTIMATE – CONAB
  • BRAZIL 2019/2020 TOTAL CORN CROP SEEN AT 98.37 MILLION TNS VERSUS 98.4 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER ESTIMATE – CONAB
  • BRAZIL 2019/2020 COTTON (LINT) CROP SEEN AT 2.73 MILLION TNS VERSUS 2.72 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER ESTIMATE – CONAB
  • BRAZIL 2019 WHEAT CROP SEEN AT 5.28 MILLION TNS VERSUS 5.15 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER ESTIMATE – CONAB
  • BRAZIL 2019/2020 SOYBEAN EXPORTS SEEN AT 72 MILLION TNS, SAME AS IN OCTOBER ESTIMATE – CONAB
  • BRAZIL 2019/2020 CORN EXPORTS SEEN AT 34 MILLION TNS, SAME AS IN OCTOBER ESTIMATE – CONAB
  • BRAZIL 2018/2019 CORN EXPORTS SEEN AT RECORD HIGH OF 39 MILLION TNS – CONAB

 

Russia’s wheat production will amount to 74 mln tons in 2019-2020 agricultural year (June 2019 – July 2020), according to the estimate of the US Department of Agriculture

—In September and October, it projected 72.5 mln tons; wheat export projection has been raised to 34.5 mln tones from 34 mln tons in previous months

—The official grain harvest outlook of the Russian Agriculture Ministry for 2019 is 120 mln tons, including 78 mln tons of wheat; previously the ministry projected grain harvest at 115-118 mln tons

 

The Indonesia Trade Security Committee has begun a safeguard investigation into a jump in imports of fructose syrup, mainly from China and the Philippines

 

Malaysia’s biodiesel production is expected to rise roughly 36% to 1.69 billion liters in 2019, partly to meet domestic demand, says the U.S. Department of Agriculture; it notes that Malaysia’s exports of biodiesel this year are projected at a record 750 million liters, as a result of robust demand from the European Union and China.

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