Overnight trade has SRW Wheat down roughly 6 cents, HRW down 3; HRS Wheat up 2, Corn is down 2 cents; Soybeans down 6; Soymeal down $2.00, and Soyoil unchanged.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 15 yuan in soybeans, up 14 in Corn, down 5 in Soymeal, up 14 in Soyoil, and up 16 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 7 ringgit at 2,791 (basis November) at midsession looking for a fifth straight session of gains and supported by a weaker ringgit.
U.S. Weather Forecast
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest has mixed ideas from the models with the GFS showing moderate rains in the eastern region of the Midwest, little elsewhere; the European has rains in the west with little elsewhere. Temps will be falling to below average by the weekend and the first half of next week.
The 11 to 16 day outlook for the Midwest has average to above average temps and below average precip for the region.
A notably unusual surge of cool air is still expected to shift down into much of the U.S. crop areas east of the Rocky Mountains Sunday into Sep. 10 before moderation occurs. This will be beneficial for areas of the U.S. struggling with dryness as the cool air will limit evaporation rates. Frost is likely in the Northern Plains as a result and light freezes are still possible in the region as well, especially in the northern half of the Northern Plains. North Dakota and the northern half of Minnesota may be coldest; though, confidence in the location of coldest air is a little low. Frost could occur down into western Nebraska and northeastern Colorado and pockets of a light freeze also cannot be ruled out in this area. Soft frost may get down into southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Some crop damage would occur in the areas that receive frosts and light freezes.
Last evening’s GFS model run showed the surge of cool air being associated with an aggressive weather disturbance in the Hard Red Winter Wheat Region and Corn Belt. Significant rain was shown with this and the greatest amounts were in Missouri, eastern Kansas, eastern Oklahoma, northwestern Arkansas, and northwestern Illinois. Some rain will occur into Iowa; though, there is not enough occurring to have a notable impact on soil moisture in the state’s driest areas.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 11,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 1,000 Corn; bought 1,000 Soybeans; net sold 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 1,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 31,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 48,000 Corn; net long 152,000 Soybeans; net long 13,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 70,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 15,300 contracts; HRW Wheat down 6,200; Corn up 16,700; Soybeans up 7,200 contracts; Soymeal down 1,500 lots, and; Soyoil up 2,400.
Deliveries were 360 Soymeal; ZERO Soyoil; ZERO Rice; ZERO Corn; 52 HRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; 2 Soybeans; 33 SRW Wheat, and; ZERO HRS Wheat.
There were changes in registrations (Soyoil down 100; HRW Wheat up 50)—Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 23; Soyoil 2,481 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice ZERO; HRW Wheat 97, and; HRS 1,387.
TODAY—WEEKLY ETHANOL STATS—
Tender Activity—Japan bought 106,937t U.S./Canadian/Australian wheat—
CBOT deliverable grain stocks summary – Reuters News
Location WHEAT CORN SOYBEANS OATS RICE
Chicago 2,952 29 3,180 168 0
Toledo 10,819 0 0 0 0
Northwest Ohio 9,818 0 0 0 0
Mississippi River 4,411 0 0 0 0
Ohio River 2,246 0 0 0 0
St. Louis 2,776 0 955 0 0
Minneapolis 0 0 0 3,893 0
Duluth-Superior 0 0 0 63 0
Arkansas 0 0 0 0 4,552
Lockport-Seneca 0 27 20 0 0
Ottawa-Chillicothe 0 241 96 0 0
Creve Coeur – Pekin 0 0 18 0 0
Havana-Grafton 0 0 782 0 0
TOTALS 33,022 297 5,051 4,124 4,552
Week Ago Totals 31,672 372 5,523 3,795 5,103
Year Ago Totals 45,013 3,266 11,817 4,618 10,375
KCBT weekly deliverable HRW wheat stocks – Reuters News
HUTCHINSON, KANSAS
08/28/20 Wk Ago Yr Ago
Deliverable Grades 25,095 25,058 25,063
Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded 900 900 900
CCC Stocks 0 0 0
TOTAL STOCKS 25,995 25,958 25,963
—
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI/KANSAS
08/28/20 Wk Ago Yr Ago
Deliverable Grades 13,048 12,622 11,528
Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded 36 36 14
CCC Stocks 0 0 0
TOTAL STOCKS 13,084 12,658 11,542
—
SALINA, KANSAS
08/28/20 Wk Ago Yr Ago
Deliverable Grades 24,822 24,488 29,764
Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded 0 0 0
CCC Stocks 0 0 0
TOTAL STOCKS 24,822 24,488 29,764
—
WICHITA, KANSAS
08/28/20 Wk Ago Yr Ago
Deliverable Grades 32,652 32,161 34,162
Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded 1,822 2,309 2,207
CCC Stocks 0 0 0
TOTAL STOCKS 34,474 34,470 36,369
MGEX deliverable HRS wheat stocks – Reuters News
MINNEAPOLIS/ST PAUL RED WING
08/30/20 WEEK AGO YEAR AGO
Deliverable 5,181 4,710 2,508
Non-deliverable 0 0 0
CCC stocks 0 0 0
Total 5,181 4,710 2,508
—
DULUTH/SUPERIOR
08/30/20 WEEK AGO YEAR AGO
Deliverable 19,836 18,937 16,888
Non-deliverable 463 463 463
CCC stocks 0 0 0
Total 20,299 19,400 17,351
The USDA July soybean crush was pegged at 185 mil bu (estimate was 183 mil bu) versus 177 mil a month ago and 179 mil last year
—Soyoil stocks were 2.124 bil lbs (estimate was 2.131 bil) versus 2.271 bil last month and 2.040 bil a year ago
—Soymeal stocks were 412,000t versus 420,000t last month and 345,000t a year ago
The USDA said 424 mil bu of corn was used for fuel alcohol in July, up from 379,000 mil a month ago and 451 mil last year.
—DDGS production in July was 1.864 mt versus 1.664 mt last month and 1.986 mt a year ago
Ethanol stockpiles are expected to grow this week, which would indicate that gasoline consumption is keeping at a slower pace amidst a lingering coronavirus pandemic in the US; the EIA said last week that ethanol stockpiles were at 20.41 million barrels – up 139,000 barrels from the previous week; stockpiles are projected to grow another 75,000 to 175,000 barrels this week, says Futures International
—Production is also expected to grow, albeit at a much slower rate; Futures International forecasts ethanol production to increase by 5,000 barrels per day this week, up from 931,000 barrels per day last week
Manitoba crop report – Reuters News
Harvesting tough cereal grains is becoming more common; aeration bins are used in combination with grain drying in some areas; spring wheat yields are generally below average; grain is generally reaching the top two grades; oat and barley yields are better, and quality is good
Wire story reports soaring corn prices are stoking food security jitters in China, where food inflation has climbed to the highest in over a decade and President Xi Jinping made a recent high-profile plea for an end to wastage; the price surge in corn – critical for China’s mammoth hog, dairy and poultry sectors – is the latest in a series of ructions that include a devastating pig disease, pandemic-driven upsets for international suppliers and warnings of a growing food supply gap; prices have risen as the country heads for its first real corn shortfall in years in the upcoming 2020/21 season starting in October and could face a deficit of up to 30 million tons, around 10% of its total crop.
BRAZIL AUGUST SOYBEAN EXPORTS REACH 6.2 MILLION TNS VERSUS 5 MILLION TNS IN THE SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO – GOVERNMENT TRADE DATA
BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS IN AUGUST TOTAL 6.48 MILLION TNS VERSUS 7.3 MILLION TNS IN THE SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO – GOVERNMENT TRADE DATA
- BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 4.19 MILLION TNS IN SEPTEMBER – ANEC
- BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 4.78 MILLION TNS IN SEPTEMBER – ANEC
- BRAZIL TO EXPORT 82 MILLION TNS OF SOYBEANS IN 2020 AND BETWEEN 31 MILLION TNS AND 33 MILLION TNS OF CORN THIS YEAR, SAYS ANEC
- BRAZIL 2019/2020 SECOND-CORN CROP SEEN AT 73.7 MILLION TNS VERSUS 73.28 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – STONEX
- BRAZIL 2020/2021 SOY CROP SEEN AT 132.6 MLN TNS VS 132.6 MLN TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – STONEX
Brazilian farmers begin sowing the 2020/2021 soybean crop this month; area planted is expected to reach 38 million hectares this season, StoneX said
Brazil is studying the resumption of a zero-tariff quota for its ethanol imports, but only for three months, aimed at getting the United States to negotiate better access for Brazilian sugar; Brazil allowed a non-tariff quota for imports of 750 million liters per year of ethanol to expire on Monday, which will result in U.S. producers having to pay a 20% tariff; the tax-free import quota was used entirely by U.S. corn ethanol producers, who were happy to sell to Brazil to make up for low sales due to the coronavirus pandemic.
The price of Brazilian agricultural commodities such as soybeans, corn, coffee and rice has reached record levels as strong demand and a weak currency drove prices higher in local currency; Brazil’s soybean quotes are up by more than 50% in nominal terms compared to the same period last year, as China continues to buy ever larger amounts of the oilseeds from Brazil; on Monday, Brazil’s main export product hit 137.76 reais per 60 kg bag, less than 2 reais below an all-time high of 139 reais in 2012.
Even as Brazilian farmers collect more than 100 million tons of corn this season, the price of the cereal, which is used to make livestock feed, rose more than 65% in 12 months, to a new nominal record above 60 reais per 60-kg bag
Argentina has delayed until November the signing of a memorandum of understanding with China aimed at increasing investment in Argentine hog output citing environmental protests over the planned export deal; Argentina first sought to sign the preliminary agreement in August, which aims to double the South American country’s pork output – currently 630,000 tons per year – in four years; the announced intention by Argentina to sign the deal, designed to spur exports to meat-hungry China, drew criticism from Argentine environmentalists concerned about the impact that such a rapid increase in pork production would have.
Ukrainian export prices for 2020 corn added $7 to $9 per ton in the past several days thanks to a lower corn harvest forecast in Ukraine and major growers, APK-Inform agriculture consultancy said; Ukrainian economy ministry this week cut its forecast for the country’s corn output in 2020 to 33 million tons from 35 million tons, while APK-Inform revised its corn harvest forecast down by 8% to 35.1 million tons due to a drought
—Ukrainian corn bid prices stood at $179 to $185 per ton FOB Black Sea, with delivery in October-November as of Sept. 2
Belarus has started winter grain sowing for the 2021 grain harvest, the agriculture ministry said; the ministry said farmers had sown the first 9,430 hectares or less than 1% of the expected area of 1.45 million hectares
—The ministry said the country had almost completed this year grain harvest, threshing 7.74 million tons of grain from 95% of the sown area as of Sept. 1.
—Belarus has said it is likely to increase its grain harvest to not less than 8.2 million tons this year from 7.33 million tons in 2019 thanks to better weather conditions
Euronext wheat rose on Tuesday to near a six-week high, supported by a rally in U.S. futures that was fueled in turn by market chatter of Chinese demand; December milling wheat settled up 2.00 euros, or 1.1%, at 187.50 euros ($223.95) a ton, close to Monday’s six-week peak of 188 euros.
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for August fell 13.7 percent to 1,442,905 tons from 1,671,656 tons shipped during July, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said.
Back