By ADM Investor Services Research Team
Wheat prices overnight are down roughly 3 cent in the SRW Wheat, down 1 in HRW, and down 1 for HRS; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans up 2; Soymeal up $0.50, and; Soyoil up 25 points.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 2 yuan in Soybeans, up 6 in Corn, up 10 in Soymeal, up 32 in Soyoil, and up 68 in Palm Oil.
The Malaysian Palm Oil market was up 81 ringgit at 2,498 (basis January) hitting an 18 month high on ideas of lower output with a stronger ringgit limiting gains.
The U.S. Midwest weather forecast will continue to see precip in the form of rain and snow for the two-thirds of the southeast region before quieting down by the weekend and much of next week. A weak front is a variable for the middle of next week. Temps are generally below average to average in some areas.
The U.S. 11 to 16 Day Outlook for the Plains and Midwest flows from below average precip and temps to some warming and some precip.
The South American weather forecast for the 6 to 10 day period has rains across much of Argentina and most of Brazil with only the northern regions missing out. Temps are seen running below average in Argentina and average to above in Brazil over the next 10 days.
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 7,000 Corn; sold 6,000 Soybeans; sold 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 4,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 9,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 81,000 Corn; net long 63,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 25,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 70,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 3,500 contracts; HRW Wheat up 2,900; Corn down 6,300; Soybeans down 20,800 contracts; Soymeal up 5,700 lots, and; Soyoil up 6,100.
There were no changes in registrations—
Registrations total ZERO contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 872; Soybeans 1,144; Soyoil 1,516 lots; Soymeal 764; Rice 1,071; HRW Wheat 11, and; HRS Wheat 669 contracts.
TODAY—–WEEKLY ETHANOL STATS—-
In tender activity—Egypt bought 235,000t Ukraine, French, Romanian wheat—Ethiopia postpones 600,000t optional-origin wheat tender—Jordan bought 60,000t optional-origin wheat—Taiwan bought 63,000t Brazilian corn—S. Korea seeks 140,000t optional-origin corn—
China’s Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday that lead China and U.S. trade negotiators will speak again soon after a U.S. administration official said an interim trade agreement between the United States and China might not be completed in time for signing in Chile next month as expected; working-level China-U.S. Trade talks will continue at a fast pace in the meantime
—U.S. President Donald Trump’s demand that Beijing commit to big purchases of American farm products has become a major sticking point in talks to end the Sino-U.S. trade war; Trump has said publicly that China could buy as much as $50 billion of U.S. farm products, more than double the annual amount it did the year before the trade war started.
U.S. Weekly Deliverable Stocks of
—SRW Wheat totaled 40 mil bu versus 40 mil last week and 69 mil a year ago
—HRW 101 mil (101 last week, 119 mil a year ago)
—HRS 24 mil bu (23 mil a week ago, 21 mil last year)
—Corn totaled 2 mil bu (2 mil last week, 7 mil a year ago)
—Soybeans totaled 18 mil bu (15 mil last week, 16 mil a year ago)
Manitoba crop report
—Crop losses are expected for yet-unharvested cereals and flax in much of the province; muddy, rutted fields are the norm across all Manitoba, particularly for soybean harvest; many producers are waiting for wet ground to freeze over to support machinery traffic and reduce compaction; overall estimated harvest progress is 85% complete, below the 3-year average of 94% for fourth week October
CHINA SELLS 1,245 TONNES OF 2015 WHEAT, OR 1.34% OF TOTAL OFFER, AT AUCTION OF STATE RESERVES; THE AVERAGE SELLING PRICE OF 2015 WHEAT IS 2,300 YUAN PER TONNE – TRADE CENTRE
CHINA SELLS 76,548 TONNES OF WHEAT, OR 2.53% OF TOTAL OFFER, AT AUCTION OF STATE RESERVES; THE AVERAGE SELLING PRICE OF WHEAT IS 2,329 YUAN PER TONNE – TRADE CENTRE
Wire story reports Chinese corn prices continue to rally partly due to recovering feed demand and bad weather in producing areas like Heilongjian
Wire story reports China’s exemption of trade tariffs for Chinese companies buying soybeans from the U.S. “suggest that the low-hanging fruit of agri purchases is likely to be fulfilled in U.S.-China trade talks; U.S. beans made up 12% of China’s soybean imports in 3Q, up from an average of 5% to 7% in prior years
In a cluster of blue and white buildings nestled deep inside one of southern Vietnam’s rubber plantations, China’s New Hope Liuhe is busy stocking its first overseas pig farm with young sows; New Hope’s efforts in Vietnam illustrate a significant acceleration in its global expansion to increase its overseas revenue to 30% of its total in a few years; the new push includes expanding the company’s core feed mill business internationally along with setting up overseas poultry farms.
—China will continue to open its fast-growing seafood sector to the world and support free trade in the industry; China firmly upholds opening-up and will create opportunities for win-win cooperation in seafood trade for all countries,” said Vice Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs
Prices for Australian cropland have been increasing at a much faster rate than other types of farmland, with almost double-digit average annual growth rates since 2014, a recent Rabobank report said
—This is limiting expansion opportunities for crop farmers, leaving many essentially land-locked
—it notes that while prices for dry cropland have risen by a compound annual growth rate of 9.1% over the past five years nationally, price growth has varied significantly between regions, making interregional purchases “more compelling for farmers
Malaysian palm oil futures extended gains for a sixth straight session on Wednesday to hit a nearly 17-month high, as they tracked gains in China and rival oils.
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