By ADM Investor Services Research Team
Wheat prices overnight are up 1/4 in SRW, up 3/4 in HRW, up 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3 1/4; Soybeans up 6 1/2; Soymeal up $0.20; Soyoil up 0.22.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 4 1/4 in SRW, down 2 1/2 in HRW, down 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 4; Soybeans down 5 1/2; Soymeal down $0.11; Soyoil down 0.19.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 20 1/2 in SRW, down 33 in HRW, down 15 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 32 1/4; Soybeans down 8 1/2; Soymeal down $0.62; Soyoil up 1.03.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 20) Soybeans up 20 yuan ; Soymeal up 7; Soyoil down 28; Palm oil down 22; Corn down 5 — Malasyian Palm is up 19.
Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 19 ringgit (+0.88%) at 2175 on data showing exports from Malaysia, the world’s second-largest producer, jumped during the first 20 days of this month. Also, a plan by Indonesia, the world’s biggest producer, to boost palm oil consumption by about 38% to 19.26 million tons by 2030.
Western Midwest will see scattered light showers with locally heavier on Tuesday with normal temps. Wednesday: near to below normal temps with scattered showers and thunderstorms over southern areas. Some moderate to heavy totals are possible.
Eastern Midwest forecast shows episodes of scattered light showers Tuesday. Wednesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and near to above normal temps.
Southeast US Forecast: Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Wednesday. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sellers 9,500 Corn; net sellers of 6,000 Soybeans; seller of 3,000 Soymeal, and; net sellers of 4,500 lots of Soyoil.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 19 were: SRW Wheat up 3,151 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,225, Corn down 5,043, Soybeans up 2,422, Soymeal down 347, Soyoil up 940.
There were changes in registrations (-192 Soybeans) . Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 1,251 Corn; 702 Soybeans; 1,879 Soyoil; 813 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.
TODAY — PRO FARMER CROP TOUR CONTINUES
Morocco on Monday announced a tender to buy 576,000 tonnes of milling wheat and 345,455 tonnes of durum wheat from the United States
Jordan issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of optional origin milling wheat
Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture sought to buy 120,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 200,000 tonnes of feed barley.
Egypt’s GASC is seeking 30k tons of imported soybean oil and 10k tons of domestic soy oil.
- Corn yields avg 154.4 bu/acre. 2018 tour avg of 179.6 bu/acre
- Soybean pod count in 3-by-3-foot square avg 764 pods. 2018 tour 1,248.2 pods
- USDA on Aug. 1 forecast Ohio corn yields at 160.0 bu/acre and soybean yields at 48.0 bu/acre
- The crop tour does not project soybean yields
- Soybeans in Madison County, Ohio are running behind, showing pods but plants appear short and dry compared to normal for this time of year. Soil moisture in farmland surveyed for the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour 2019 appears to be mostly dry, with small to medium-sized cracks in the soil. Corn, on the other hand, was showing full maturity amid some sighting of disease.
- While Crops surveyed in southern Ohio counties like Greene and Warren look generally healthy — more so for corn than soybean acres — prevented planting acreage in northern Ohio appears to be prevalent. Bloomberg News reports seeing high amounts of farmland near Hardin County unplanted.
- Corn yields in South Dakota avg 154.1 bu/acre. 2018 tour avg of 178 bu/acre
- Soybean pod count in 3-by-3-foot square avg 832.9 pods. 2018 tour 1,024.7 pods.
- USDA on Aug. 1 forecast South Dakota corn yields at 157 bu/acre and soybean yields at 45 bu/acre
- The crop tour does not project soybean yields
Crop Tour Methodology
In each corn field, scouts measure row spacing, count ear populations, measure grain length on three systematically selected ears, and measure the number of kernel rows around the ears. These metrics allow for a rough yield calculation, which essentially assumes a standard ear weight for all fields.
Tour calculations for corn work best with more mature ears since it is obvious where grain has filled and where it has not. But immature corn will certainly be a challenge this year, especially on the Eastern routes where corn was planted very late.
It is hard to derive soybean yields from field measurements at this stage because there are too many unknown variables such as the number of pods per plant, the number of beans per pod, and the size of the bean in the pod.
The Tour does not estimate soybean yields in each field on a bushels-per-acre basis, but instead the number of pods in a three-foot by three-foot plot. These pod counts are indicative of how much of the bean production factory is up and running, with higher counts being more supportive of higher yields.
US CROP PROGRESS
Malaysia’s August 1-20 Palm Oil exports seen at 1,027,710 Tonnes vs. July 1-20 At 909,285 –Amspec Malaysia. Intertek reports exports of Malaysian palm oil during the same time frame rose 8.7 percent to 1,005,355 tonnes from 924,895 tonnes.
Ukraine’s grain stocks were up 14% over last year at 21.8 million tonnes as of August 1st. Stocks at large and medium-sized agricultural companies included 15.7 million tonnes of wheat.
Indonesia likely to see palm oil production growth being hit short to medium term as a drought across major planting regions is expected to delay fruit ripening and lower output. A prolonged drought usually causes lower fresh fruit bunch production and may hit oil extraction during harvest in the next 6-12 months.
Indonesia 1H biodiesel exports fell to 500,000 kiloliters from 800,000 kiloliters a year ago because of weak demand from EU. 2019 exports may be below 2 million kiloliters target.
British farmers are rushing to sell their big harvests of wheat and barley before October to avoid the potential market chaos of a no-deal Brexit.
China / US trade was the biggest theme at a soybean industry gathering in the city of Harbin in Heilongjiang province last week. China’s soybean industry insiders at the conference heatedly debated how they could boost domestic output, while also seeking alternative long-term supply sources, such as Russia, to fill the gap.
- “Soybeans are only a symbol, and we have to protect ourselves during the war … the nature of the China-US trade tensions is a contest between big powers.
- Shi Yong’ge, the president of the Jiusan Group said, “The China-US trade friction is a long war, and it will continue to weigh on the Chinese soybean industry.”
- “The primary purpose of food supply security is still about avoiding hunger, but soybeans, as a source of protein, are about better nutrition,” Shi said.
- Dmitry Rylko, the director general of the Moscow-based Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, said Russia’s soybean exports available for China would be limited.
- Zhang Liwei, head of the forecasting division at the National Grain and Oil Information Centre, “The epidemic of African swine fever will reduce the demand for soybean and soybean meal … the supply from Argentina is still sufficient,” he said.
Russia has harvested 69.1 million tonnes of grain from 45 percent of the area with an average yield of 3.26 tonnes per hectare. Last year at this time it had harvested 68.4 million tonnes with an average yield of 3.15 tonnes on the same date a year earlier. Farmers have also sown winter grains for next year’s crop on 0.9 percent of the planned area, or on 153,100 hectares, the ministry said.
RUSSIA’S 2019 GRAIN HARVEST PROGRESS (August 16)
|All grains:||Wheat||Barley||Sugar beet|
|Crop, mln tonnes||69.1||53.7||11.0||1.4|
|Crop, at the same date 2018||68.4||52.4||10.2||0.3|
|Yield, at the same date 2018||3.15||3.44||2.57||31.88|
|Harvested area, mln hectares||21.2||15.1||3.7||0.03|
Black Sea prices for wheat with 12.5% protein content fell $1 to $193 a tonne on a free on board (FOB) basis by the end of last week. Russian wheat exports fell sharply last week compared with a week earlier. It currently sees August wheat, barley and maize exports at 4.2 million tonnes, which is a relatively low amount for this time of the season.
Seoul unveiled the plan to provide 50,000 tons of rice to North Korea in June through the World Food Program. Its original plan was to make the first shipment of the domestically harvested rice in July and complete the delivery by September. North Korea is reportedly refusing to accept food assistance from South Korea, taking issue with Seoul’s joint military exercise with the United States.
A vessel was loading wheat for export to China at the northern French port of Dunkirk on Monday, according to shipping sources and data, in what would be the first such shipment since last year.
Germany pork production is in decline as a result of reductions in domestic demand. German swine herd numbers reaching near 20-year lows. This has led to decreasing demand for pig feed and as a result, soymeal. The US, being Germany’s largest source of soybeans, will likely see decreased exports of soybeans to Germany in the near term.
Japan’s use of grains for animal feed
CHINA PIG HERD
World Grains: Some stress to spring grains in southwest areas of the Canadian Prairies due to dryness, however recent showers will help to ease stress somewhat. Mostly favorable conditions are seen elsewhere. Crop development remains behind normal and this crop is vulnerable to an early freeze. Reports out of the Peace River region suggest that near freezing temperatures may have impacted some flowering crops early this month. Weekend temperatures were not cold enough to cause significant concerns for crops, although development will slow. Rain early in August eased dryness over western portions of the eastern former Soviet Union stabilizing yield prospects after hot/dry weather during much of July caused irreversible yield losses. Crops are currently in reproductive to early filling stages. Cooler weekend temperatures east of the Urals will favor development while to the west hot temperatures will need to be watched.
Parts of northern, eastern and central Ukraine had low nighttime temperatures last week, unfavorable for late development of corn, sunflowers and soybeans. Most of nation’s crops are in fair to good condition.
Heavy rains that flooded some fields in China’s northeast, and lingering cloudy weather, will be adverse for corn, rice and soy crops, which are now in key growing stage, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.