Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 4 cents, HRW down 4; HRS Wheat down 1, Corn is down 3 cents, Soybeans down 6, Soymeal down $1.00, and Soyoil down 50 points.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices were down roughly 9 cents; HRW down 15; HRS down 17; Corn was down 11 cents; Soybeans down 44; Soymeal down $8.00; and Soyoil down 235 points; Crushing margins were unchanged; Oilshare down 2%.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 31 yuan in Soybeans, up 2 in Corn, up 42 in Soymeal, up 14 in Soyoil, and down 24 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were down 16 ringgits at 2,254 (basis June) on further fears of demand of disruption over coronavirus cases.
Most commodities are expected to continue to trade lower due to concern that the spread of the virus will slow World economies and demand. US stocks are limit down after Fed dropped rates to near zero. There is talk of a need for a stimulus to help workers pay which will help them pay bills and loans.
Rally in US Dollar is resulting in record lower Brazil and Argentina currencies. This is helping farmers there. Brazil farmers crop margins are now record high. China continues to focus on buying Brazil soybeans for import.
US soybean export prices are near $334 vs Brazil $329. US soymeal prices are near $346 vs Argentina $330. US corn prices are near $171. Argentina is near $165. US HRW price s are near $227. Russia is near $213 and lowest since 2016.
May corn could drop to 3.40 on demand concerns. Argentina corn export prices are 40 cents cheaper than US. May Chicago wheat could follow corn due to concerns about demand and bigger Black Sea crops and lower prices. WK could test 4.50. Soybeans could follow lower energy prices and on advancing Brazil harvest slowing demand for US soybeans. May soybean support is near 8.37.
The U.S. Winter Wheat areas has more wet weather for the South East Plains over the next 5 to 6 days with quieter weather settling in for the 6 to 10 day period.
The U.S. Midwest forecast will see a wet pattern developing over the region over the next 10 days.
The South American weather forecast for Brazil has rainfall moderate rainfall for most the northern growing regions with things mainly dry in the south.
The Argentine weather forecast has rainfall moderate rainfall for the beginning of the week for most growing regions with things turning dry for the rest of the week; the 6 to 10 day forecast is dry for the weekend and early next week.
The player sheet had funds net even in SRW Wheat; net sold 2,000 Corn; sold 8,000 Soybeans; net sold 6,000 lots of Soymeal, and; sold 5,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 92,000 Corn; net short 58,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 6,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 9,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 6,200 contracts; HRW Wheat down 2,700; Corn down 5,200; Soybeans down 19,000 contracts; Soymeal down 7,800 lots, and; Soyoil up 4,200.
Deliveries were 35 Soymeal; 33 Soyoil; 7 Rice; 69 Corn; ZERO HRW Wheat; 6 Oats; 6 Soybeans;; and; 60 SRW.
There were changes in registrations (SRW Wheat up 10; Corn down 52; Soybeans down 182; Soymeal down 9; Rice up 2) —Registrations total 60 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 171; Soybeans 602; Soyoil 2,668 lots; Soymeal 627; Rice 850; HRW Wheat 10, and; HRS Wheat 821 contracts.
TODAY——-EXPORT INSPECTIONS—NOPA MONTHLY CRUSH—
Tender Activity—Algeria seeks 50,000t optional-origin wheat—Jordan seeks 120,000t optional-origin wheat—S. Korean feed groups seek up to 184,000t optional-origin
The U.S. soybean crush remained elevated in February, likely reaching the highest level on record for the month amid strong demand for soy products
NOPA members likely crushed 164.956 million bushels of soybeans last month
—If realized, it would be down from the 176.940 million bushels crushed in January
—up from the February 2019 crush of 154.498 million bushels
—Crush estimates ranged from 163.100 million to 166.680 million bushels
—The monthly NOPA report will be released at 11 a.m. CDT (1600 GMT) on Monday
—Soyoil supplies among NOPA members at the end of February were seen rising to 2.037 billion pounds
—up from 2.013 billion at the end of January
—and 1.752 billion at the end of February 2019
—Estimates for soyoil stocks ranged from 1.927 billion to 2.125 billion
‘Oil World’
Another Week of Heavy Selling and Plummeting Equity and Commodity Markets
Some recovery on Friday (March13) provides some hope that markets may have hit the bottom.
Equity and commodity markets have crashed; effects of the coronavirus devastating.
Soybean crop damaged by drought and heat in southern Brazil and Central Argentina – about 4 Mn T lost during the past three weeks.
Export sales of US soybeans are likely to pick up in the next few weeks.
In China soya meal consumption is exceeding expectations, which requires larger soybean imports and crushings; we now estimate total Chinese soybean imports at 91.0 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2019/20.
World fish oil exports will be unusually low in Febr/May 2020 owing to tight supplies.
Malaysian palm oil stocks at a 32-month low; sharp declines in Malaysian & Indonesian palm oil exports in early 2020.
Although global markets were in panic mode last week over coronavirus and the potential economic fallout, speculators’ reaction to Chicago-traded grains and oilseeds was relatively variable through Tuesday; in the week ended March 10, the most actively traded CBOT corn and wheat contracts both slid 1%, but money managers were net buyers of both during the period.
Chinese soymeal futures jumped 3% on Monday, on course for their biggest daily jump in 17 months, on worries that the coronavirus pandemic would further delay cargoes from major exporter Brazil; rains in the south American country have already held back exports of the oilseed, supporting prices; fundamentally, supplies of soybeans are still quite tight in March; the most actively traded soymeal futures on Dalian Commodity Exchange, for delivery in September, rose 2.12% to 2,792 yuan ($398.99) per ton by the end of morning trade; supplies are expected to be tight in the second half of March, before easing in April.
Severe congestion at Chinese ports is easing, say officials and industry participants, although a logjam of refrigerated containers has disrupted supplies of fresh and frozen food and pushed up freight rates outside China.
- BRAZIL SOYBEAN FARMERS HARVEST 62.8% OF THE ESTIMATED AREA FOR 2019/2020 CROP, UP 10% FROM THE PRIOR WEEK AND ABOVE HISTORICAL AVERAGE OF 62.6% – ARC MERCOSUL
- BRAZIL SOY HARVESTING GATHERED PACE THANKS TO DRIER WEATHER IN MATO GROSSO DO SUL, GOIÁS AND MINAS GERAIS STATES – ARC MERCOSUL
- ARC MERCOSUL SAYS DRY WEATHER IN CENTER-SOUTH STATES A CONCERN FOR FARMERS WHO PLANTED OR ARE PLANTING SECOND CORN
- BRAZIL SOYBEAN GROWERS IN RIO GRANDE DO SUL STATE, WHERE CROP FAILURE IS ESTIMATED AROUND 30%, MAY FACE MORE LOSSES IF DRY WEATHER PERSISTS – ARC MERCOSUL
Grain exports from Russia rose sharply last week as the rouble weakened against the dollar, agriculture consultancy SovEcon said; Russian wheat export prices in dollars fell sharply and for the seventh week running last week after a slump in global oil prices and concerns about the spread of the coronavirus pressed the rouble to a four-year lows against the dollar
—Sovecon said it had upgraded its estimate for Russia’s March grain exports to 3.4 million tons from 2.1 million
—Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content loaded from Black Sea ports fell by $6 to $207 a ton free on board (FOB) at the end of last week
Russia’s March exports of wheat, barley and maize (corn) are estimated at 3.4 million tons, up from 1.7 million tons in February, the SovEcon agriculture consultancy said; it previously expected Russia’s March exports at 2.1 million tons
Ukraine’s winter wheat may fall 12.5% in 2020 to 24.2 million tons due to the low moisture in the soil after a snowless winter, Ukraine’s national research institute IAE said; the winter wheat provides about 98% of the total wheat output in Ukraine
—IAE said in a statement that the corn harvest is also expected to decrease by 10.3% to 32.2 million tons while the volume of barley will shrink by 8.7% to 8.1 million tons
—Ukraine’s economy ministry forecasts the total grain harvest at around 65 million tons in 2020 after a record 75 million tons last year
Ukrainian grain exports from sea ports fell to 832,000 tons in the week of March 7-13 from 1.548 million tons a week earlier, preliminary data from the APK-Inform consultancy showed
—wheat exports fell sharply to 169,000 tons from 534,000 tons
—corn shipments decreased to 565,000 tons from 993,000 tons
—but grain exports jumped to about 42.1 million tons so far during the 2019/20 season that ends in July, from 30.4 million tons for the same period in 2018/19
Grain trade association Coceral lowered its forecast of soft wheat production this year in the European Union and Britain to 136.5 million tons from an initial 137.9 million estimated last month; that compared with estimated 2019 output of 145.7 million tons
Egypt has sufficient strategic wheat reserves to last for 3.6 months, its supply ministry said
—Egypt has enough soyoil to last till Aug. 1 and enough sunflower oil to last until Aug. 8
Malaysia has decreased its export duty for crude palm oil to 5% for April from 6% in March, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said
—Calculated a reference price of 2,631.07 ringgit ($612.02) per ton
—The export tax structure starts at 3% for crude palm oil priced in a 2,250-2,400 ringgit-per-ton range
—The maximum tax rate is set at 8% when prices are above 3,450 ringgit a ton
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Mar. 1-15 fell 3.4 percent to 511,460 tons from 529,191 tons shipped during Feb. 1-15, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said
—Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for March 1 – 15 fell 9.6 percent to 489,635 tons from 541,444 tons shipped during February 1 – 15, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said
—MALAYSIA’S MARCH 1-15 PALM OIL EXPORTS ESTIMATED AT 502,287 TONNES VERSUS FEB 1-15 AT 511,629 TONNES – AMSPEC MALAYSIA
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