AM Comments 102219

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Harvest is on hold for a day or so for me and my crew.  Given our shower on Monday was under a half-inch, I’m assuming we can run here on Tuesday afternoon pretty easily.  It looks like I’ve got a decent forecast for the week with little chance for more precipitation but temps trending awfully cold.  In the next week, we’ll see lows in the low-30s several evening, so our days will continue to get a bit more challenging for harvest activity…especially cutting beans. While I don’t have many left, it could be a chore to get them cut in the river-bottoms.  With all that being said, I know some of you actually have something to complain about with regards to the weather…especially in North Dakota, where a few of you have shared with me how frustrating it’s been.  I hope you see the weather improve soon.  Stay in touch on harvest and yields if possible.  mbennett@AgMarket.Net

The corn and bean markets were steady to higher on the overnight session, but lost ground as the day session wore on.  While news wasn’t abundant, it appeared some in the trade were rattled a bit as we learn more news about RFS from the EPA and President Trump.  With the promise from our president that the damage done from previous waivers would be addressed, the EPA version told a different story.  The bottom line on our markets is we need demand to pick up.  With carry-out levels getting smaller, a solid demand story would likely bolster our markets.  Outside markets were likely viewed as negative as the Dollar was slightly higher while crude closed lower.  December crude settled down 27 cents at $53.60.  This was 57 cents off the high and 75 off the low.

Corn – On Sunday night, the corn market was mixed but spent much of the latter half of the session up a penny or more.  The day session was the same old ‘sell a higher Sunday market’ and December corn closed down 3 ¾ cents at $3.87 ¼. This was 6 ½ cents off the high and three-quarters of a penny off the low.  Weekly export inspections came in close to expectations at 532k metric tons…it would be nice to see inspections get better for sure.  Only 30% of the corn has been harvested so far, which compares to 47% for the 5-year average, while 14% of the corn was still not mature while the crop is virtually finished most years as far as maturing goes.  Given current weather issues for many, production and quality losses would seem to be likely this fall.  The big question is when will we learn this?  Another big question is how much of this fall’s corn is better than expected?  While I think November gives us a better picture of the situation, I remain steadfast in thinking it will be January before we get an accurate reflection of total US production for 2019.

Soybeans – Soybeans on Sunday and Monday were mostly higher but at the close, beans were in the red.  At the close, November beans were down three-quarters of a penny, settling at $9.33 ¼.  This was 6 ¾ cents off the high and a dime off the low.  Weekly export inspections were solid at 1.296 million metric tons, keeping the bean demand situation in an improvement mode.  Only 46% of the beans had been harvested versus 64 on average.  If the bean market could hold together for the time being, I’d think we could see a nice rally associated with the November crop report.  With the weather we’ve seen in some parts of the US and very few ‘excellent’ yields being reported, I’d think the national US soybean yield could scale back a bit as well.  With carry-out levels well under what most thought we’d see just two months ago, we don’t have a ton of margin for error.  With all of this being said, this bean market has already rallied…so don’t get too greedy when putting your bean offers out there.

Let us know if you’d like to discuss any strategies.  Be sure to visit our website at https://agmarket.net/ if you’d like to get more information on the markets.  Be safe out there and have a great week!

 

Matt Bennett

217-273-1133 – Work

@chief321 – Twiter

mbennett@AgMarket.Net – E-mail

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